Someday, some gold hoarder (an Arab nation under new management, perhaps?) will decide that gold has peaked, and start selling. More sellers will follow. Panic-selling will ensue, and the price will plunge. That's what bubbles do: pop.
When that passage from your Gleaner's latest CityLife column was submitted for publication the other day, gold was selling at an all-time high of $1,911 an ounce. A couple days later when the column was published, the price had fallen $200. It's recovered some since. The harsh reality, s'pose, is that your Gleaner is pretty much like all the Wall Street analysts who won't rest until everything of value in the entire world is owned by by the super rich, i.e., wholly clueless as to exactly what the price of gold is going to do or when it's going to do it.
But more importantly -- and just for the record since nothing meaningful is going to be done about it any time soon, if ever -- thanks to the humiliating farce passing as state mining tax policy, as far as any significant contribution to Nevada's pathetically inadequate and job-killing state budget is concerned, the spectacular increase in the price of gold over the last several years, including the rapid escalation over the last several months, might as well not even have happened. Nevada is getting royally ripped off each and every day. Or as the headline of your Gleaner's column in CityLife puts it, "Squandered opportunity pushes $2,000 an ounce."
Btw, please don't blame Newmont and Barrick. The global mining companies care deeply about Nevada's well-being, which is why they directed their lobbyists to work so hard to pass a broad-based business tax during the last legislative session.
True, despite making a business tax their tip-top priority -- why, Newmont's lobbyist, Jones Vargas, apparently even put the governor on the payroll -- mining's lobbyists couldn't quite get the job done.
But take heart. Newmont and Barrick didn't become giant transnational conglomerates by giving up! So we must assume the industry's government affairs efforts are now dedicated to bankrolling and fighting for a broad-based business tax initiative on the 2012 ballot. After all, if they're not, why, that would mean that mining's commitment to a business tax is but a sham, just some rhetorical Hokey Pokey performed to deflect any tax discussion away from mining, and the industry's lobbyists, including and especially those who are former elected officials, actually care more about their fat paychecks than they do about the state of Nevada, and probably always have.
And if the people of Nevada determine that dozens of the state's most successful lobbyists can't be trusted any farther than their luxury SUVs can be thrown, well goodness, then what?