Hart numbers

Among the Peter Hart polling numbers that Jon Ralston flashed Wednesday afternoon, the ones that jumped right out of the computer screen here at Gleaner HQ were the results showing Democrat Jill Derby within striking distance in CD2:

CD2
GOP primary:
Dawn Gibbons               34
Dean Heller                   25
Sharron Angle               12

General:
Gibbons                         37
Jill Derby                        33

Heller                             43
Derby                             25

Angle                             32
Derby                             28

There's Jill, within a point of poll's 3-point margin of error against two of the three GOP candidates, including the current favorite. This seems to underscore that much of the conventional wisdom -- a Democrat has no chance in Nevada's rural heartland district -- has underestimated the impact of Republicans nominating a flawed candidate. See "Letting optimism run wild in NV CD2."

The other numbers that were pretty surprising were in the governor's race -- not the dead heat between Gibbons and Gibson in a general election; there's too much confusion over their names for any head-to-head polling to mean anything at this point (See "Gibson...er, Gibbons...wait, the other guy..."). But what's up in the GOP primary?

Jim Gibbons 55
Bob Beers   14
Lorraine Hunt    12

Lorraine at 12 is understandable. Lorraine at 2 would be understandable. But Gibbons over 50 in a three-way? And Beers at a lowly 14? Maybe Beers should start telling everybody about his Tax and Spending Control ballot initiative. The rest of the gubes:

Dem primary:
Dina Titus   41
Jim Gibson  30

General:

Gibson  37
Gibbons 37

Titus   34
Gibbons 42

Titus            38
Beers            29

Gibson                        46
Beers                        25

Now, presumably, all of us will be forced to endure more cries about how Jim Gibson is the "electable" one. He probably is. Electable. But watching Titus take out the Republican is going to be a lot more fun.

Finally, the Senate race:

Ensign  47      
Goodman 38

Ensign  49
Carter  32

There's no getting around it -- a race between the Hair-Do and the Town Drunk would be sight to behold.

The Hart poll was reportedly paid for by the gambling industry, and Ralston is threatening to dribble out more findings in the hours and days ahead through his various media venues -- presumably there are some CD3 numbers showing how Tessa Hafen matches up against Tom DeLay's man in Nevada, Jon Porter, and unless we're mistaken, they will be the first numbers, or at least publicized ones, since Hafen announced her candidacy. So watch for that.

Comments

[John Gandy]

Titus is currently campaigning against Gibson that why she has a massive lead. When she starts campaigning against Gibbons she will cut him down to size. She is in it to win it and she will! She is dynomite!

[collegestudent]

When was that poll taken?
If it was before April one, I bet Beers' numbers are higher now. His press release was the best thing in this race so far, R or D, certainly the most interesting, and the great thing is, the Gibbons camp is buying right into it. It wasn't KRNV who was duped it was "Bobby" Uithoven and company.

[Beastie]

You are sorely mistaken John Gandy, as much as I don't want Gibbons to win, he would beat Titus, and do it fairly easy. If Gibson does not win, I guarantee that Gibbons will be the next governor, and he will take 55% or more of the vote against Titus.

[JEB]

1. We are too far out for the Titus vs. Gibbons poll to mean anything.
2. The Hart polling firm is not independent. Hart works for Gibson.

[upnorth]

Did anyone hear that Jack Carter called the hair do, ensignificant? Now there is a guy with some wit. (or at least a staff with some)

[Beastie]

No he doesn't, if he did there would only be numbers for the governor's race. Why would Gibson pay for polls for the other races?

[Henderson Dem]

This was a Gibbons poll, he doesn't want Gibson in the race; he's not afraid of Dina.

[Jessica Simpson]

this was an industry paid for poll - Nick told me.

Nevada Resort Association

[Beastie]

Actually it was a Gibbons poll.

[Not Bob]

Beastie - just for once, face a fact. Hart's firm, Garin Hart Yang, works for Gibson. See for instance here and here .

This poll may have been paid for by the Resort Association and the NRA is of course close to Rogich, whose principle client these days is Gibbons, but its still the case that this poll was done by Gibson's own firm -- and it shows him >10 points down.

The time is coming soon when you'll have to stop "guaranteeing" that Gibbons will beat Titus and decide if you are a) trying to make that happen or b) willing to get to work to help us elect a Democrat.

[Beastie]

This poll was not paid for by Gibson. I am working to elect a Democrat, Gibson, he is the one that can take down Gibbons.

Beastie is right and others are too. This poll was doen by the same firm that Gibson commissioned polls from, however this most recent poll was the NRA and Rogich. Of course, the Gibson poll by the same firm had totally different numbers. So who is hosing who here, Gibson, Rogich or Garin Hart and Young. My money is on the polling firm giving whoever paid for the poll the answer they wanted to hear. When it was Gibson, they showed him Neck and Neck with Titus, when its Rogich they show Titus beating Gibson in the primary and getting stomped in the General. So who knows what to believe