Zogby numbers

If the latest polling numbers from Zogby suggest anything, it's that at least one national pollster continues to be convinced that Oscar Goodman is running for something.

Governor head-to-heads:

• Goodman 43       
• Gibbons 40

• Gibbons 41         
• Titus 36

• Titus 38
• Hunt 36

In the Zogby/WSJ graphic, where we got this stuff, they didn't bother to publish the numbers for Jim Gibson (and you thought the Gleaner wasn't giving Gibson enough respect). They just said Titus polls better than he does. Nor does the WSJ graphic give specific numbers for GOP candidate Bob Beers -- save to say Titus beats him. We've requested more details and will slap 'em up if they come through.

Meantime, as for the match-up that matters, i.e., Gibbons-Titus, in January Gibbons was at 46 and Titus was at 40 in the Zogby poll. So both of them are slipping? And if so, where's it going? To the imaginary Goodman candidacy? As has been shown repeatedly, we're statistically incompetent here at the Gleaner, but still, we don't get it.

On the Senate side, Zogby reports Ensign beating Goodman by eight points, 48 to 40, and beating Carter 52 to 38. That last spread, by the way, is exactly the same that Zogby found in January, except not for Carter -- Ensign was beating Goodman 52 to 38. So Goodman's closed, and Carter, who was down 18 points in January, has closed to where Goodman used to be.

UPDATE: OK, we got Gibbons beating Gibson 37 to 33 now, compared to Gibbons 42, Gibson 37 in March. Nothing to sneeze at, perhaps -- though we will yet again advance our concerns about the possibility of significant numbers of poll respondents, even the online political junkies in the Zogby Interactive poll, getting confused about Gibbons and Gibson.

Also, and somewhat sadly, Beers appears to have slipped over the last couple months. Titus beats him 38 to 33 in March, compared to a razor-thin 40 to 39 edge in January. Gibson beats Beers 37 to 32 now, compared to just 38 to 37 a couple months back. And Goodman leads Beers by 9 points in March, 44 to 35, compared to a slim 42 to 38 edge in January. Gosh, we'd suggest that the overwhelming popularity of Bob's anti-guvment TASC initiative is detracting from the message of his gubernatorial campaign, but TASC is the message of his gubernatorial campaign, so go figure.

Meantime, we've also got additional color commentary/analysis from the pollster:

Oscar Goodman, the popular Democratic mayor of Las Vegas, is still the big "if in Nevada.

If Goodman enters the gubernatorial race, he stands a very good chance of being the Silver State's next governor.

If Goodman enters the gubernatorial race, even the GOP's strongest candidate, 2nd District Congressman Jim Gibbons, fights an uphill battle.

If Goodman enters the race for any office, expect sparks to fly over his career as a criminal defense lawyer for some unsavory types.

If.

But Goodman hasn't made up his mind yet.

So, any number of permutations could come out of this contest, with Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus the likely Democratic standard-bearer and Gibbons likely to take the GOP line.

Right now, the contest for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat is a bit more clear-cut. John Ensign, the freshman Republican senator, is still in solid position for re-election, although should Goodman decide he wants a shot at the Senate, Ensign has to work overtime to prevent his support -- which would slide below 50% -- from dipping further.

Comments

[M]

Goodman has acknowledged that he is hindering Carter's fundraising, but says the reason he is not making his intentions known is that he wants to make an announcement.
There seem to be only two possible explanations for this behavior. Since I have a hard time believing that the mayor is purposely helping Ensign, I must conclude that he's running for Senate.

Could be. Could also be that the attention is mighty flattering. A Goodman-Ensign Senate race would make Titus-Gibbons look tame.

[Diogenes]

We will know Oscar's decision by May 12th!

[TonyTheAnt]

I held my nose while choosing Goodman over Gibbons/Ensign in the Zogby. Carter/Titus for me.

BTW, Bush selections- Strongly Disapprove/Poor