Roll Call on Carter/Goodman/Ensign

Roll Call (subscription, drat) has a lengthy story on the outlook of the race for John Ensign's Senate seat. The piece is driven, of course, by the breathless speculation that Las Vegas town drunk Oscar Goodman, who also serves as mayor, might enter the race, and echoes the obvious assessment rendered here and elsewhere that if Goodman gets in the race, Nevada is suddenly a top-tier state in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.

But the story keeps one foot in reality, and takes a look at whatever chances Ensign's likely opponent, Jack Carter, might have against Ensign, a man who has both the best haircut and the best golf swing of anyone in the U.S. Senate. Roll Call also breaks a little news; Carter says his campaign reports will show he's raised $250,000 so far. (Ensign's campaign is already sitting on millions and says they'll spend $10 million if necessary). Other excerpts:

Carter on Goodman:

Carter had only good things to say about his possible opponent.

"I think Oscar would be a great candidate," Carter said. "He would be a tough opponent, but he has one major problem and that problem is if he wins he'll have to leave Las Vegas and go to Washington, D.C."

Ensign campaign guru Darth Slanker on Carter:.

"No matter who runs ... it's an even registration state so it's always in play," Slanker said. "It is affected - especially southern Nevada - by the mood of the country and Democrats are doing a little better right now. Blowouts aren't all that common in Nevada. John Ensign is a terrific campaigner, but we just aren't taking anyone lightly."

Slanker said even if Goodman takes a pass, Ensign cannot afford to look past Carter.

"We're not taking a guy like Jack Carter lightly," Slanker said. "His name ID will go from 2 to 90 overnight once he goes on TV. A guy like Jack Carter can raise money; you can probably make the argument that his dad is more popular now than when he was president and he can certainly help raise money."

Carter on connecting in the values-totin' heartland:

Carter says he has two big advantages. One, that he is "related to a famous person who has phenomenal positive name identification." The other is his rural upbringing and his ability to connect with voters outside of Clark County.

Noting that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) lost Nevada by approximately 20,000 votes in the 2004 presidential election mainly due to huge turnout for President Bush in the rural areas, Carter said he thinks he has a winning strategy.

"The key is who controls the rural areas," Carter said. "And I don't need to control them; I just need to lose them 60-40."

The Harry Reid factor:

Reid narrowly won re-election in 1998, beating Ensign by just 428 votes. After Ensign won an open seat in 2000, the two forged a close working relationship. Reid did little to help Ensign's Democratic opponent that year and Ensign returned the favor in 2004, when he nary lifted a finger on behalf of Reid's under-funded Republican challenger.

Carter said he thinks things will be different this year.

"I think whatever happened a couple of years ago was in much different times and I think times have changed," Carter said. "I think Harry is the minority leader and I think he wants to be the majority leader and this state is ripe for the plucking."

Reid has donated to Carter's campaign and is backing him - as the only announced Democratic candidate.

But Ralston predicted that if Carter is the nominee, Reid will make only minimal effort to get him elected.

"He'll do nothing for Carter - just the perfunctory" things such as donating money and making some campaign appearances, Ralston said.

Actually, it's worse than that. By sitting on his hands, Reid has all but told the sugar daddies in and out of Nevada that there's really no reason to bother donating money to Jack Carter. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is being headed by Sen. Chuck Schumer, at Reid's request, and Schumer made it painfully clear late last year that Jack Carter's existence was a phenemonon of which New York's senior senator was unaware -- almost as if Harry told the DSCC that Ensign's seat isn't in play, so never mind. We've often wondered how the non-aggression pact between Reid and Ensign is good for Nevada or the nation. But the upshot is not that Reid isn't helping Carter; it's that he's hurting him.

Comments

[Diogenes]

If both the Senate and the House are owned by the Repugicans in 07/08 heaven help the middle class, for they shall become the no-class, and if Alito is confirmed (high probability), then heaven help the US and the world. This is not the time for Reid to play games by making nice, nice, there is just too much at stake. Lives being lost in Afganistan and Iraq, kids are coming home crippled and the homeland is unprotected. Every congressional seat counts, and sweet smiles will get you crapped on.

[VegasFirst]

Harry’s really let his own state down already, only minutes after rightly announcing he was declaring war on the “organized crime” committed by the lobbyist-controlled national GOP.

But that’s vintage Harry, unfortunately. Got to admire his political career and all, but it’s always all about HIS political interests – and those of his relatives, specifically his terminally-nasal son Rory, who Harry wants to groom to succeed him in the Senate -- over those of his own party (remember Dario Herrera?), and Nevada itself.

I recently rented the excellent, late-1940s movie “All the King’s Men” to enjoy it again, and believe me, Harry’s looking and sounding an awful lot like the Gov. Stark (the Huey Long character) of Nevada. Or, maybe Papa Doc is more like it.

Carter would make a good senator – and far more effective than Ensign -- because Carter would bring a TON of media attention and added political sway to Nevada, and could even emerge as a Senate leader or Presidential hopeful. Maybe that’s part of the reason Harry’s afraid of him. Don’t want anyone to upstage Rory.

(God help us, not everyone can be a Bob Redford, but Rory makes Wally Cox look like Brad Pitt.)

[Diogenes]

How can any knowledgeable student of politics take Harry seriously, when so much is at stake (even LDS influence, in light of the right wing Christian movement), not to mention the Constitution, and the basic freedoms we used to enjoy. Here he sits on a 50:50 red state where one or two votes in the Congress makes the difference of passage of a bill, or gives a get out of jail free pass for the administration. There is a train coming, and old time, old boy politicians better get out of the way or learn to ride the people's train. This is not fiction or a screen story, this is life or death! Within two years, if things don't change, we will be in another conflict, the draft will be reinstated and tens of millions will be in poverty and/or bankrupacy.