CD3: A live one?

Harry Reid spokestress Tessa Hafen told the Jon Ralston media empire Tuesday that she's "seriously thinking about running" against Republican Jon Porter in Nevada's third congressional district. Hafen is reportedly Mormon and her father's been on the Henderson City Council for nearly 20 years. So it's sort of like the old boy network, except the young woman edition -- she's 29.

In a year when corruption and general disgust with business as usual in Washington is likely to be a big issue, youth could be more of an advantage than a hindrance. That's doubly so for a Democrat in a year when dissatisfaction with Congress means Republicans have the most to lose because they control Congress. And triply so against Porter, who has jumped into the political wars about corruption in a big way even though he is indisputably Tom DeLay's man in Nevada.

Unfortunately, when Hafen's name has appeared in print lately, it's been in the context of explaining why Harry Reid isn't going to return contributions from Jack Abramoff's clients. The advantage of being a fresh-faced young'n could be neutralized by virtue of her job as Reid spokestress -- or, as it would no doubt be characterized by Porter's well-established seek-and-destroy style of campaigning via character assassination, Hafen's status within "the national Democratic party attack machine" or words to that effect.

Voter registration in the third congressional district is effectively evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. But you wouldn't know it from Porter's two successful bids for Congress, against Dario Herrera in 2002 and Tom Gallagher last year. Porter beat Herrera 56 percent to 37 percent, and Gallagher 54 percent to 40 percent. Herrera of course was a deeply flawed candidate. Gallagher was a new face on the scene who never really got a chance to introduce himself to voters before Porter's slash-and-burn team had caricatured him -- but perhaps even more importantly, voters in 2004 had yet to come to the firm conclusion that the Republicans were out of control. In any case, neither candidate brought the Democrats home in CD3.

The mood of the electorate has changed considerably since election day 2004, and some of the tactics used by Gallagher -- trying to tie Porter to DeLay and the Republican Congress and belittling Porter's mindless subservience to Bush administration policies -- should by all rights gain a lot more traction this year. And the very points that Porter will try to make through shock-and-awe televised bombing -- Hafen's youth, her connections to Reid and, by extension, the evil national Democratic Party -- could be exactly the points that make the Democrats vote for, well, the Democrat.

Another quick gleanette: The last time Jon Porter lost a campaign, it was to a woman. A meaningless factoid, to be sure, but we're bring it up, you know, just 'cause.

Comments

[Not Bob Beers]

The other odd thing about Porter is that he won both races (02, 04) by running more or less to the left of his opponent -- remember the ads saying he would defend social security in 02 and the attacks on Gallagher as a "millionnaire corporative executive" who laid off workers in 04?

[Michael]

No one who challenges Rep Porter can win the seat if they don't make both him, and his buddies at the sleaze machine of NovemberInc, part of their campaign.

It all fits together with the culture of corruption he's so very much a part of and has so richly benefited from.

You have to play by the rules they operate under and hit them just as hard as they hit you.

Jon Porter is the least effective member of the NV delegation, and the most beatable, if his sleazy attack ads are answered immediately and forcefully.

You don't hire NovemberInc if you've got a decent recond to run on. Their client list includes those with dirty hands and ethics and corruption troubles, who can't win any other way, than by destroying good people with lies and half-truths like they did with Tom Gallagher.

[Michael Green]

What would also make Tessa Hafen a potentially strong candidate against Porter is not just her youth and her Mormon background, but also that she's used to being put through the political wringer as Reid's spokesperson. Porter's last three opponents--the first one, to whom he lost, was Shelley Berkley--went in thinking he's a nice guy. He is not nice. He will do anything to win, so he hires scum and tries to fly above the radar. So, thanks to Porter's history and her own, Hafen might be ready. And Porter probably would lose some sympathy if his campaign takes out after a young woman, which his campaign inevitably will do since Porter has no record on which to run.

Also, a little revenge for Reid against Porter for raising the corruption charge, when Porter's connections to corrupt Republicans are so thick that not even a butcher knife could cut through them, would be nice.

[Diogenes]

The secret of winning against Porter is to get votes. If Hafen can capture votes by being a key person on Reid's staff, having a father who has been involved with local politics,as a member of a very powerful religious group in Southern Nevada, and the ability of raising two million dollars or more, then there's a chance she could muster the votes. But these same "advantages" can work against her. You need crossover voters and a neutral appearance, not that of being a puppet. As usual this will draw down to a partisan race with "baggage" on both sides. It is unfortunate that a name like Agassi can't come into play that regardless of party, would draw from all quarters. Such a person need not make it a career, but as an opportunity to put this country back on track. Where are the contemporary statepersons?

[Tom Zuzelo]

Very interesting post. I will be updating my predictions site with the information you have provided. Thanks alot!

[kdavis]

Jon Porter is going down.

[Jag Uppal]

Winning an election and beating Porter is a numbers game - votes, votes and just one more, vote! Senator Obama has demonstrated how to get votes aganist many odds.

Of course, Nevada is diffrent from Illinois as is a senator from a representative. However, both represent people. Obama won because he listened to more voters than his opponent did and then, effectively spoke of their concerns.

Harry Reid and Shelley Berkely know that so well. Tessa Hafen must have internalized some of their values of Caring for Nevadans - not K-Streeters.

The people in CD3 have many concerns for themselves, about their children and the environment. There is every reason for a youthful Tessa Hafen to win if she were to adopt a meet-greet-listen 'diet.'

Eye-for-an-eye approach with Porter may be necessary but its only the votes that win elections.